Presidential Election Prediction Model 2024. Lichtman has correctly predicted nearly every presidential election result of the u.s. Silver gained national recognition in 2008 when his statistical model correctly forecasted the outcome of the presidential election in 49 of the 50 states.
As of the end of july 2024, assuming a biden gallup approval score of 40 percent and a continued rate of jobs growth between 1 and 2 percent, the model predicts a very narrow democratic 2024 victory in the electoral college (275 votes). Here’s how his system works.
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